The ARRL Letter, October 23, 2014


The K7RA Solar Update

Tad Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington, reports: Solar activity is making a healthy comeback, just in time for the SSB weekend of the CQ World Wide DX Contest.

A series of large solar flares erupted this week. The most powerful was an X1.6 flare on October 22. The sunspot is now directly facing Earth.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 55.1 during October 9-15 to 83.9 this week, and average daily solar flux increased from 117.4 to 174.

The predicted solar flux for this weekend is 220, higher than on any day since January 7. Prior to that, we didn’t see solar flux values this high since late October 2003. Accompanying the high solar flux back then was a great deal of geomagnetic activity. On October 29, 2003, the mid-latitude A index hit 199! Several 3-hour K index values were 9, the top of the scale. On the same day the daily sunspot number was 330.

Predicted solar flux is 215 on October 23, 220 on October 24-27, 215 on October 28-29, 205 on October 30, 140 on October 31, 130 on November 1-3, dropping to a low of 110 on November 8, and rising to 180 on November 19-20.

Along with that relatively high solar flux this weekend will be unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

The predicted planetary A index is 15 on October 23-24, 10 on October 25, 12 on October 26-27, 10 on October 28-29, 8 on October 30, 5 on October 31 through November 3, 8 on November 4, 10 on November 5, 8 on November 6-7, 5 on November 8-9, 8 on November 10-11, then 5 and 8 on November 12-13, 12 on November 14-15, 15 and 12 on November 16-17, 15 on November 18-19, then 12, 10, and 8 on November 20-22, and 10 on November 23-24.

This weekly “Solar Update” in The ARRL Letter is a preview of the “Propagation Bulletin” issued each Friday. The latest bulletin and an archive of past propagation bulletins is on the ARRL website.

In tomorrow’s bulletin look for an updated forecast and reports from readers. Send me your reports and observations.

via The ARRL Letter, October 23, 2014.

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Here’s the latest solar update from Tad Cook (K7RA).  Thanks to a series  of large solar flares associated with a huge sunspot facing Earth, “Solar activity is making a healthy comeback, just in time for the SSB weekend of the CQ World Wide DX Contest.”   Some of the M-class flares interrupted HF communications for shortwave stations and some amateur radio bands.  Cook says, “Along with a relatively high solar flux this weekend will be unsettled geomagnetic conditions.”  So, this could be an exciting weekend, propagation wise.

For the latest Amateur Radio News and Events, check out the blog sidebars.  These news feeds are updated daily.

Aloha es 73 de Russ (KH6JRM).

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